I didn’t write about ChatGPT when it was first introduced a month ago because, well, it seemed like everyone else was. I didn’t play with it to see what it could do. I didn’t want it to write any poems. I didn’t have any AP tests I wanted it to pass. And, for all you know, I’m not using it to write this. But when The New York Times reports that Google sees ChatGPT as a “Code Red” for its search business, that got my attention.
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| Credit: 1littlecoder/YouTube |
A few months ago I wrote
about how Google saw TikTok as an existential threat to its business, estimating
that 40% of young people used it for searches.
It was a different kind of search, mind you, with video results instead
of links, but that’s what made it scary – because it didn’t just incrementally
improve “traditional” search, as Google had done to Lycos or Altavista, it potentially
changed what “search” was.
TikTok may well still do that (although it is facing
existential issues of its own), but ChatGPT could pose an even greater
threat. Why get a bunch of search
results that you still have to investigate when you could just ask ChatGPT to
tell you exactly what you want to know?
Look, I like Google as much as anyone, but the
prospect that its massive
dominance of the search engine market could, in the near future, suddenly
come to an end gives me hope for healthcare. If Google isn’t safe in search, no company is
safe in any industry, healthcare included.
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The problem with ChatGPT
for search is two-fold. The first is
that, while it will give you a plausible sounding answer to almost anything you
ask it. As Emily Peck of Axios noted,
“ChatGPT
has no idea whether anything it says is true.”
At least with traditional search results, you can see
results from several sources and evaluate their credibility. With ChatGPT all that happens behind the
scenes. ChatGPT doesn’t care whether
what it is telling you is true or not; it’s just interested in providing you a
response. That hopefully is something
that will improve as ChatGPT “learns” to distinguish true from potentially true
to unlikely to probably false and to demonstrably false. Over time, it could probably do that as well
as (most) users do.
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| Umm, no -- Honduras. Credit: Mashabe/OpenAI screenshot |
The second problem is even more dangerous, for Google:
it doesn’t fit with the digital advertising model that delivers most of Google’s
massive revenues. “Google has a business model issue,” AI
expert Amr Awadallah, told NYT.
“If Google gives you the perfect answer to each query, you won’t click on any
ads.”
And this threat is
happening at a time when Google’s share of digital dollars is
already declining.
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Forrester Research analyst Rowan Curran sees ChatGPT as a major turning point for AI, telling Venture Beat: “The only thing that I’ve been able to compare it to is the release of the iPhone.” There were smartphones before the iPhone, just as there were AI chatbots before ChatGPT, but the iPhone raised expectations dramatically. Mr. Curran feels ChatGPT is having a similar effect:
I think what is really unique here is we have a technology that is useful today, that is advancing very quickly, and that we are all learning about in real time — in terms of both how to use it and how to prevent it being used in negative ways.
Sridhar Ramaswamy,
co-founder and CEO of ad-free search platform Neeva,
is similarly excited, telling
NYT: “Last year, I was despondent that it was so hard
to dislodge the iron grip of Google. But technological moments like this create
an opportunity for more competition.”
In addition to Neeva
and Dr. Awadallah’s Ventura, there’s AI-driven
search engine You.com, “the AI search engine you
control.” As with ChatGPT, users take
their chances on the accuracy of results; the site warns: “This
product is in beta and its accuracy may be limited," and "You.com is not liable for content
generated.”
It's not as though
Google has been ignoring AI. Google helped
develop what led to ChatGPT, and has a chatbot technology of its own – LaMDA
(Language Model for Dialogue Applications) that is so powerful that some
feared it was, in fact, sentient. In
addition, Google has a host of AI-based
products and tools it is working on.
Given its market dominance and reputation, though, it has to be careful
how it introduces any innovations.
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| Credit: Google |
The business model problem is far deeper. If search has been, essentially, a way to serve
up targeted ads, then a chatbot or other model that doesn’t easily accommodate ads
is a problem for companies that have relied on them. And companies that don’t rely on ads to
generate revenue have to come up with other revenue sources, in an online world
where users expect most things to be “free.”
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Healthcare has similar issues with AI. As with search, the first is that it is going
to enable new ways of delivering information and even care. Initially it won’t do so with as much
accuracy as humans, but it will learn quickly and at some point it will rival –
or even exceed – human experts. Healthcare
can dig in its heels and stick to the human-driven model, but the AI-driven changes
are coming.
Again, as with search, the business model challenge is
even greater. The healthcare business
model is both exceeding expensive and insanely complicated. It isn’t built at
all on what is best for people’s care, much less their health. AI will enable models that are far cheaper,
far faster, and potentially much simpler.
Healthcare will fight to maintain its sources of revenue, but the
revolution is coming.
If I were Epic, the Cleveland Clinic, United Healthcare,
Big Pharma, or any of healthcare’s other dominant entities, I’d be watching how
Google responds to ChatGPT.
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