It's Quantum Time

In Fast Company, Adam Bluestein writes: “It’s an unscientific fact that nine out of every 10 conversations about tech in the past year have been about AI. But the 10th has been about quantum computing.”

This is one of those conversations.

You're going to be surprised by quantum computers. Credit: Bing Image Creator

Mr. Bluestein continues:

In a period of just over a year, the perennial technology of the future has become suddenly real—with major breakthroughs in computing hardware and software, significant public and private investments, and rising stock prices for companies in the burgeoning quantum ecosystem.

For example, you may have noticed that earlier this month Google announced Willow, its breakthrough quantum chip. Hartmut Neven, Founder and Lead of Google Quantum AI, claimed two major accomplishments for Willow. One was that it “performed a standard benchmark computation in under five minutes that would take one of today’s fastest supercomputers 10 septillion (that is, 10²⁵) years — a number that vastly exceeds the age of the Universe.” 

The second was that it cracked a key problem with quantum computing, reducing errors “exponentially” as it scaled up using more qubits (the quantum version of bits). The error reduction was also important because Dr. Neven states: “it’s also one of the first compelling examples of real-time error correction on a superconducting quantum system.” Googles believes it has reached an “error correction threshold” that is critical to making quantum computing reliable.

Credit: Google Quantum AI

“When quantum computing was originally envisioned, many people — including many leaders in the field — felt that it would never be a practical thing,” Mikhail Lukin, a professor of physics at Harvard, told The New York Times. “What has happened over the last year shows that it is no longer science fiction.” Even Elon Musk responded to Google’s announcement with “Wow” on X.

Meanwhile, Steven Rosenbush wrote a Wall Street Journal article “The Age of Quantum Software Has Already Started.” For example, IBM already has some 250 paying customers for its quantum systems and services. “It’s actually not a matter of waiting for that to be built. In fact, it’s already happening,” Jerry M. Chow, an IBM fellow and director of quantum infrastructure, told him.

Mr. Rosenbush mentions several other quantum computing companies, such as Terra Quantum, which touts itself as “The leading global independent full stack quantum technology company, IonQ, whose mission is “To build the world’s best quantum computers to solve the world’s most complex problems,” and PsiQuantum, which claims it is “building the world’s first useful quantum computer.”

I would be remiss if I didn’t note that Terra Quantum specifically mentions life sciences and healthcare as a target industry, pointing out: “Quantum technologies help us truly understand, simulate and optimize the quantum properties of nature. This, in turn, unlocks enormous potential in the areas of biochemistry, pharmacogenomics, medical imaging, and others.” You can bet other quantum companies are or will be doing the same.

PsiQuantum is interesting for at least three other reasons. As Elizabeth Gibney outlines in Nature, first, it is basing its structure on photons instead of atoms to make qubits – a “photonics approach.” Second, it has already raised $1b and values itself at $3b. “They have received one of the biggest venture-capital investments in the quantum community,” Doug Finke, of the business-analysis firm Global Quantum Intelligence, told her.

Third, and more to the point, by the end of 2027 it “aims to be operating a photonic quantum computer that can run commercially useful problems and is ‘fault-tolerant’.” It plans to have this operational at its Brisbane site in 2027 and at Chicago’s new Illinois Quantum and Microelectronics Park in 2028.

Illinois, it should be noted, is investing some $500 million in IQMP, and will give PsiQuantum $200 million more in incentives. It wants the park to be the Silicon Valley of quantum computing. “Our vision of Illinois as a global quantum capital comes further into focus at Illinois Quantum and Microelectronics Park, providing limitless opportunities for economic investment and innovation right here on the South Side,” said Governor JB Pritzker.   

Rendering of IQMP. Credit: State of Illinois

PsiQuantum Chief Business Officer Stratton Sclavos told Mr. Rosenbush: “We’re not building a science project.” He further explained: “I’m not trying to speed up your simulation that, you know, works perfectly, well. What I’m trying to do is give you a simulation of a thing you can’t simulate today.”

Still, PsiQuantum has not published much research, so validating its hopes is difficult. “My impression is there’s a lot of skepticism about how much progress PsiQuantum has made,” Shimon Kolkowitz, a quantum physicist at the University of California, Berkeley, told Ms. Gibney.  He warned her that a bet on them would be “extremely high risk.”

Still, money is flowing into the field. Fast Company reports:

The number of quantum computing deals soared more than 700% from 2015 through 2023, according to PitchBook data, and total deal value grew tenfold to $1 billion. Governments around the world have made quantum computing a strategic national defense priority. As of February 2024, the U.S government had invested $3 billion in quantum computing projects, plus an additional $1.2 billion from the National Quantum Computing Initiative. China, meanwhile, has reportedly invested some $15 billion in quantum computing efforts.

One reason interest is s high – and this may be the main thing you knew about quantum computing – is that once it happens, our traditional encryption methods become useless; a quantum computer could crack them in nanoseconds.

Cryptocurrencies, for example, would be very vulnerable. “What you’ve got here is a time bomb waiting to explode, if and when someone gets that ability to develop quantum-computer hacking and decides to use that to target cryptocurrencies,” said Arthur Herman, senior fellow at the Hudson Institute.

People are already working on how to make encryption safe from quantum computers, such as quantum token, using quantum key distribution (QKD). IEEE Spectrum reports:

QKD is, in theory at least, an unbreakable method for sharing a cryptographic key between two parties that can then be used to encrypt and decrypt private messages. The technology is currently being tested by financial institutions, government entities, major technology firms and militaries.

“There is definitely a quantum apocalypse on the horizon at some point in the future, but that point is a sufficiently long time away that there is no need for panic,” Emin Gün Sirer, founder of the Avalanche cryptocurrency, told WSJ.

Umm, you might want to start panicking – or at least start planning.

As Dr. Lukin told NYT: “People no longer doubt it will be done. The question now is: When?” As AI has recently proven, I’m betting “when” will be much sooner than we’ll be ready for.