Saving U.S. Manufacturing: Think Biotech, Not Cars

Amidst all the drama last week with tariffs, trade wars, and market upheavals, you may have missed that the National Security Commission on Emerging Biotechnology (NSCEB) issued its report: Charting the Future of Biotechnology. Indeed, you may have missed when the Commission was created by Congress in 2022; I know I did.

Credit: NSCEB

Biotechnology is a big deal and it is going to get much bigger. John Cumbers, founder and CEO of SynBiobeta, writes that the U.S. bioeconomy is now already worth $950b, and quotes McKinsey Global Institute as predicting that by 2040, biology could generate up to 60% of the world’s physical inputs, representing a $30 trillion global opportunity. Not an opportunity the U.S. can afford to miss out on – yet that is exactly what may be happening.

The NSCEB report sets the stakes:

We stand at the edge of a new industrial revolution, one that depends on our ability to engineer biology. Emerging biotechnology, coupled with artificial intelligence, will transform everything from the way we defend and build our nation to how we nourish and provide care for Americans.

Unfortunately, the report continues: “We now believe the United States is falling behind in key areas of emerging biotechnology as China surges ahead.”

Their core conclusion: “China is quickly ascending to biotechnology dominance, having made biotechnology a strategic priority for 20 years.¹ To remain competitive, the United States must take swift action in the next three years. Otherwise, we risk falling behind, a setback from which we may never recover.”

Credit: NSCEB

NSCEB Chair Senator Todd Young elaborated:

The United States is locked in a competition with China that will define the coming century. Biotechnology is the next phase in that competition. It is no longer constrained to the realm of scientific achievement. It is now an imperative for national security, economic power, and global influence. Biotechnology can ensure our warfighters continue to be the strongest fighting force on tomorrow's battlefields, and reshore supply chains while revitalizing our manufacturing sector, creating jobs here at home.

“We are about to see decades of breakthrough happen, seemingly, overnight…touching nearly every aspect of our lives—agriculture, industry, energy, defense, and national security,” Michelle Rozo, PhD, molecular biologist and vice chair of NSCEB, said while testifying before the April 8 House Armed Services Committee Subcommittee on Cyber, Information Technologies, and Innovation. Yet, she continued, “America’s biotechnology strengths are atrophying—dangerously.”

Paul Zhang, a partner at Bluestar BioAdvisors, which advises drugmakers on commercial strategies, including seeking business in China, explained to The Wall Street Journal how China’s manufacturing aims have evolved: “Initially it was how to do shoes and sneakers faster and cheaper and better. Then it was how to build iPhones faster and better. Now it’s how to build biotech and AI faster and better,” 

If you think NSCEB is being alarmist, Julie Heng, writing for the Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS), notes:

Over the past decade, China has dramatically increased its biotech investments, with biopharma R&D growing 400-fold and the market value of biotech firms surging 100-fold between 2016 to 2021, now reaching a collective value of $300 billion…Notably, 79 percent of U.S. pharmaceutical companies now depend on Chinese contract firms for manufacturing. Furthermore, China is continuing a whole-of-government effort to support its domestic industry with financing, regulatory streamlining, and diplomatic support, building out over 100 biotech research parks and 17 industrial clusters.

It's worse than just being out manufactured. The Commission “has every reason to believe that the CCP will weaponize biotechnology,” and describes some scary scenarios, including genetically enhanced “super soldiers,” using microbes to degrade wood and concrete in our buildings and infrastructure, or developing pathogens to only attack crops grown in the U.S. If those don’t scare you, I don’t know what does.

Thus, the Commission says, “if the United States fails to act, the future of biotechnology could be catastrophic.”

The Commission does suggest a plan. The report lays out six “pillars” and makes 49 recommendations. The six pillars are:

• Pillar 1: Prioritize biotechnology at the national level
• Pillar 2: Mobilize the private sector to get U.S. products to scale
• Pillar 3: Maximize the benefits of biotechnology for defense
• Pillar 4: Out-innovate our strategic competitors
• Pillar 5: Build the biotechnology workforce of the future
• Pillar 6: Mobilize the collective strengths of our allies and partners

The Commission’s goal is not to “out-China China,” but to “lean into our inherent strengths.” Their key recommendation is to invest a minimum of $15b over the next five years, in hopes of attracting even more private capital into the field. It also calls for a National Biotechnology Coordination Office to help drive government strategy.

With all that is at stake, $15b hardly seems like enough. Let’s hope DOGE doesn’t find out.

I should probably note that David Wainer, writing in WSJ, points out: “The U.S. biotech sector had already been through a brutal few years before the latest market crash… More investors are even wondering if the whole model—risky science, costly funding, political uncertainty and long waits for payoffs—is simply broken. For many of the nearly 200 companies trading below their cash value, it probably is.” Not a market that is inspiring a flood of new investment – at least, not in the U.S.

Dr. Cumbers urges:

We have the Rust Belt and the Bible Belt—now let’s build a Bio Belt: a nationwide network of regional biomanufacturing hubs. These hubs wouldn’t just drive innovation—they’d power economic renewal, especially in rural and industrial regions. While some jobs will go to scientists and engineers, many more will go to tradespeople, factory workers, and high school graduates trained to run and maintain next-gen biofacilities.

And he warns: “If we fail to build the capacity to make what we invent, we’ll watch the returns on American innovation.” We’ve seen that movie too many times, in other sectors, and it doesn’t end well for us.

We definitely do need to make biotechnology a priority,. The federal investment and national coordinating office seem like sound recommendations. The problem is, we need the same in A.I. and in robotics, just to name two other key emerging industries. The current Administration is so focused on bringing back 20^th century industries like coal mining and auto manufacturing that I have to wonder: who is looking ahead, not behind?   

Go Read a Book. You Probably Won't

Let’s not talk about tariffs.

That's what I want to see more of. Credit: Microsoft Designer

Let’s not talk about the stock market, either. Both topics are way too depressing these days, for related reasons. Let’s talk instead about one of my favorite things, reading. Alas, though, I have to warn you: the news here is not all good either.

A new NPR/Ipsos poll had some intriguing insights into how Americans feel about reading. Two-thirds of us claim we’ve read or listened to a book in the past month (half had read a book, physical or electronic, and the rest had listened to audiobook). Ninety-eight percent of us want our children to develop a love of reading. About two-thirds of us say we have a collection of books in our homes, and want to be better readers.

All encouraging stuff.

But: forty-three of us say reading is low on our priority list. Slightly less than forty percent think they read more now than they did a few years ago, or when they were kids. We like reading in principle, but many of us spend our time doing other things.

Interestingly enough, readers reported slightly more time streaming, being on social media, or watching short-form videos like on YouTube or TikTok, so those activities don’t necessarily need to keep non-readers from reading. Similarly, readers were more likely to say they didn’t read more because of work or other life activities, including kids’ activities. Readers were less likely to say they just preferred other forms of entertainment, but the difference was not large. So it’s really not quite clear why more don’t read.

Here's a clue: a 2023 survey from the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) found that 28% of U.S. adults read at the lowest literacy level. In 2017, that comparable statistic was 17%.  And, oh-by-the-way, our scores on numeracy were even worse (34%). When asked about the reasons for the decline, then NCES Commissioner Peggy Carr said: “It’s difficult to say.” She has, of course, been let go by President Trump, who is not particularly known for any love of reading.

Many of us may not read because, well, we’re not very good at it.

Percentage of U.S. adults aged 16-65 at selected proficiency levels. Credit: NCES

Similarly, new statistics from the National Assessment of Educational Progress found that 33% of eighth graders were reading at “below basic” levels, the lowest it has been in the thirty year history of the survey. For fourth graders, it was even worse, with 40% at “below basic” levels, the lowest in twenty years. “Our lowest performing students are reading at historically low levels,” said Commission Carr.

Evidently all those people who claimed to want their children to develop a love of reading are not succeeding.

Writing last fall in Vox, Anna North highlighted what she thinks the problem with kids’ reading is:

What has plummeted, however, is how much kids read, especially outside of school. In 1984, the first year for which data is available, 35 percent of 13-year-olds reported reading for fun “almost every day,” according to NAEP. By 2023, that figure was down to 14 percent, and 31 percent of respondents said they never read for fun at all.

By the way, the NPR/Ipsos survey found that, among those with K-12 children, 82% think their child reads at or above their grade level, 79% think their child is interested in reading, and 69% thinks their child reads for pleasure. A lot of parents are kidding themselves.

In the NPR/Ipsos poll, 82% of us think reading is a way to learn about the world (which, of course, it is). Unfortunately, our children may not be learning how to learn that way. Catherine Snow, a professor of cognition and education at Harvard Graduate School of Education, told Ms. North (referring to children): “they’re not reading in the ways that they need to read in order to be prepared for the tasks of learning and critical thinking.”

Christina Cover, who leads the Project for Adolescent Literacy at the nonprofit Seek Common Ground, added: “These are our voters. These are people that are really going to be taking us into what’s next for our country and for our world.”

Their not reading does not bode well for our future.

Let’s track back to that seemingly encouraging statistic that two-thirds of us have read or listened to a book in the last month. A 2023 YouGov survey found that 46% of us didn’t finish any books in the last year. Another five percent read only one book, so just over half of us read one or fewer books in the entire year.

If you read five books – five books! – you’re in the upper third of all Americans. While I’m at it, half of us rarely or never visit a library, with those over 45 least likely to (even though they are most likely to be readers). Don’t even get me started at the increasing efforts to ban books.

Our literacy is very much at risk…which put our society at risk.

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There’s significant research that indicate our attention span is getting shorter, even when just online, so it probably shouldn’t come as a surprise that reading an actual book is a commitment that many of us won’t undertake; heck, reading to the end of this article is probably a stretch.  

Maybe reading books is just old-fashioned, like printing presses in a e-book world. Maybe short form content, be it YouTube videos or X posts, is how we like to get our information. On the other hand, (print) book sales rose 6.5% in 2024, according to Publishers Weekly, so maybe not all hope is lost.

I grew up in a family of readers. I grew up with weekly trips to the library. There was never a time in my life when I wasn’t a voracious reader. My wife teases (I think) me about how many books we have in our house. So I am very much prejudiced about the importance of reading and of reading books in particular.

I fear that it’s not just children who aren’t reading in ways that help them learn about the world and to think critically about information. Reading at most one book a year is not going to do it. And I fear that is leading us to a society where ignorance triumphs, truth loses meaning, and progress stalls or even reverses.

So pick up a book – preferably one that challenges you to learn something new– or, better yet, read one with your kids.