I Predict You'll Bet

I’ve been vaguely aware of the prediction markets for a while, but I didn’t give them much thought. If people want to speculate on who’ll win a Presidential election, well, it’s their money. It’s probably harmless that people tried to have some fun with this weekend’s extraordinarily bad weather by trying to predict snowfall totals in various cities. If some people want to wager about the outcome of the Russia-Ukraine war, I think it’s in bad taste but, hey, it’s a free country, mostly.

Betters can be fickle

What got my attention was a Wall Street Journal article This NFL Season’s Fiercest Rivalry Is Sports Betting vs. Prediction Markets. My first thought was, huh, I didn’t know prediction markets did sports betting. My second thought was, how very stupid of me to have not realized that. My third thought was: the sports betting industry is in trouble.

Now, sports betting I’m aware of. Honestly, you can’t watch TV without seeing Kevin Hart hawking DraftKings. You can’t watch any sporting event without seeing not just ads for DraftKings and FanDuel but ongoing odds displayed (and discussed) prominently. Sports betting is impossible to miss. Since the Supreme Court allowed sports betting in 2018, it has taken off like wildfire. Thirty nine states, plus the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico, allow it.  

How many states allow prediction markets? That’s the thing of it: none of them do, because the industry claims it is federally regulated. Its nominal regulator, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), had originally expressed some concerns, but under the current Administration seems to be all-in.

It is perhaps noting that Donald Trump Jr. is an advisor to both Kalshi and Polymarket. Draw your own conclusions.

Sports betting is big business. The American Gaming Association estimates it is a $150 billion industry. FanDuel (which is owned by Flutter) and DraftKings are the dominant sports betting companies, while Kalshi and Polymarket are the biggest prediction markets platforms. If you can’t beat them join them; both FanDuel and DraftKings have launched their own prediction markets. FanDuel Chief Executive Amy Howe told WSJ: “The aspiration is still to legalize as much of the United States as we can—that is the North Star.”

And the prediction markets are now big players in sports betting. Yahoo Finance reports that Kalshi gets 90% of its bets from sports betting – and took in $720 million in NFL betting last week. As much as it has made its bed with sports betting, the NFL isn’t yet comfortable with prediction markets. In testimony before Congress in December, NFL Executive Vice President Jeff Miller said: “In each of these state-regulated markets, regulators and state legislators closely monitor betting activity and, with input from professional sports leagues, can determine which bets and wager levels are acceptable. Those guardrails do not exist in prediction markets.”

Similarly, the NCAA has expressed concerns to the CFTC, wanting it to suspect college sports prediction markets until there were better safeguards. NCAA President Jeff Miller told WSJ: “Let’s face it—college sports prediction markets are sports betting, and targeting states that haven’t legalized sports betting is creating a massive risk to the integrity of the game and to student-athletes.”

Methinks they both protest too much. We’ve seen betting scandals in the NCAA, NFL, NBA, MLB, so you can either argue that the uncovering of the scandals proves the oversight is working, or that the problem is far worse than we really. I know what I’d bet – or predict.

Meanwhile, the NHL and MLS have signed prediction market deals. Keith Wachtel, who oversees the NHL’s business operations, explained: “If you’re part of it, then you have the ability to control and monitor more effectively.”  Uh-huh.

And oh-by-the-way, Dow Jones (which owns WSJ, whose article started me down this rabbit hole) recently announced a deal with Polymarket. So have CNN and CNBC, if you’re counting.

Tarek Mansour, Kalshi's cofounder, rationalizes: “If we are gambling, then I think you're basically calling the entire financial market gambling.” A spokesperson for the newly formed Coalition for Prediction Markets (referencing the concerns raised by the NFL’s Mr. Miller) told ESPN:

The CFTC's regulations on abusive or manipulative trading apply to prediction markets just like the SEC's regulations apply to the stock market. This activity is strictly prohibited by both the CFTC and prediction markets, and we use a variety of tools before, during, and after people trade to prevent illegal trading and bring enforcement action when violations happen.

Of course, the CFTC is no SEC, and the required disclosures are not at all the same, but we get your point – caveat emptor.

Former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, who is helping advise the American Gaming Association on prediction markets, sees it differently: “Calling it predictive markets never fooled me. It’s a bet. That’s what it is, and it doesn’t look or feel any different than that.”

As they say, if it looks like a duck, quacks like a duck, and walks like a duck, it’s a duck.

States are not just sitting back. In Massachusetts, Suffolk County Superior Court Judge Christopher Barry-Smith ruled last week that he will issue a preliminary injunction barring Kalshi from taking action on sport-related events. He wrote: “There can be little question that Kalshi well understood that its business model -- especially once it began offering bets on sporting events -- came into direct conflict state enforcement regimes; Kalshi chose to take that risk head-on."

New York and Tennessee are also taking legal action. This is all going to end up in the Supreme Court again.   

----------

The truth of the matter is that (some) people are always going to gamble. It is often sports but, really, people will bet on almost anything. Once states figured out that they could tax gambling, legalized lotteries, casinos and sports betting were inevitable. People are probably better off if gambling is regulated, but tell that to the problem gamblers, to whom making it easier is anything but better off.

I’m not a gambler and I don’t have a dog in this fight, so what interests me in the sports betting versus prediction markets face-off is that here we have an industry that grew from nothing to being hugely successful in less than ten years, which now is being threatened by competitors who approach their market in an entirely different way, while largely evading regulatory constraints. It’s not exactly Uber versus the taxi industry, but there are parallels.

I’m not rooting for the prediction markets, but I’ve aways got an eye out for disruptive innovation.  

How About Some Punk Science

Last week the Tyler Prize for Environmental Achievement was awarded, going to Dr. Toby Kiers, a professor at Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam. She’s an evolutionary biologist and one of the leading experts in mycorrhizal networks, the vast underground networks which fungi use to connect with plants and trees. The Tyler Prize is, apparently, often described as the Nobel Prize for the environment, so I just hope President Trump doesn’t hear about it and feel neglected.

You want punk science? How about a map of fungal networks. Credit: SPUN

Oh, yeah: last year she also won a MacArthur Award and a Climate Breakthrough Award, so she’s having a pretty good few months.

Dr. Kiers’ research has helped us understand how these networks work, and why they are so important to food systems, soil health, and even climate – they take out some 13 billion tons of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, about a third of global fossil fuel emissions. No, wait, you say -- fungi are kind of yucky at best and downright dangerous at worst, as evidenced by a drug-resistant and potentially deadly fungus that has infected patients in at least 27 states and counting.

Well, yes, fungi can be dangerous, but they are also vital. Dr. Kiers is blunt about their importance: "Life as we know it exists because of fungi,” both from an evolutionary standpoint and today.  Fungi are essential to the health of the ecosystem. They “trade” the carbon for minerals that plants need.  As Dr. Kiers described in an interview with Alan Burdick of The New York Times:

We’ve been studying fungal trade as an underground market and developing techniques to track, in real time, when and where important exchange deals take place, how fungi navigate space, how they decide when and how much carbon to send down each pathway, how they build their road systems and how they optimize that supply-chain design. 

Are fungi capitalists? No. They’ve developed a system that is much more sophisticated than the economic system humans use.

Dr. Kiers has helped develop tools that allow researchers to watch fungal networks develop and operate in real time, visually monitoring when and where trades take place across plant-fungal networks. And you thought you had some cool streaming services.

In 2021, she founded the Society for the Protection of Underground Networks (SPUN), whose mission is to “map, protect, and harness the mycorrhizal networks that regulate the Earth’s climate and ecosystems.” When it says “map,” it means it literally: the Underground Atlas allows anyone to “explore the distribution of arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) and ectomycorrhizal (EcM) fungi to identify biodiversity hotspots and areas with rare, endemic fungi.”

The associated Underground Explorers program is a network of researchers in 58 countries focused on mapping fungal biodiversity in their local ecosystems. Dr. Kiers describes it as “a fungi-without-borders approach.”

SPUN also just announced the Underground Advocates program, partnering with NYU Law’s More-than-Human Life (MOTH) Program, to equip the network of Underground Explorers with tools and support to become effective in translating mycological science into action. Its goal is “to equip researchers and communities with the scientific and legal understanding to drive lasting change.”  SPUN and MOTH see it as “a proof-of-concept for a model of environmental protection that is locally led, scientifically grounded, and connected to a global community of practice.”

“Toby’s work to translate scientific insight into real-world action, most recently with SPUN’s new Underground Advocates program, demonstrates her leadership in advancing global efforts to protect the fungal networks that sustain life on Earth,” said Rashid Sumaila, chair of the Tyler Prize Executive Committee.

“With 90% of our most diverse underground fungal systems unprotected, urgent action is needed to incorporate fungal data into global conservation plans,” Dr. Kiers said. Giuliana Furci, mycologist and founder of Fungi Foundation, agrees, adding: “To better incorporate fungi in policy and legal frameworks, rigorous datasets are needed. The Underground Advocates program can help put fungal data into action, using the Atlas to pinpoint what will be lost if decision-makers do not protect underground ecosystems,”

Most people have become at least somewhat aware of the microbiome that is in us, on us, and around us, and science is slowly starting to understand how that impacts us. We’re further behind in the awareness of our fungal neighbors and their importance. I had to groan when I read that a potential victim of recent federal National Science Foundation (NSF) budget cuts was the International Collection of Vesicular Arbuscular Mycorrhizal Fungi (INVAM), the world’s largest living library of soil fungi.

“INVAM represents a library of hundreds of millions of years of evolution,” said Dr. Kiers, “Ending INVAM for scientists is like closing the Louvre for artists.”

INVAM curator Professor Jim Breyers emphasizes: “The benefits of mycorrhizal fungi are real. Research on mycorrhizal fungi is totally dependent on having these fungi in culture.” Alas, he added, ““The current administration has shifted funding away from basic science, and while there is always a hope that private donors could fill that void, I don’t think there is a real substitute for federal investment.”

Another example of cutting off our nose to spite our face.

------------

I loved how Dr. Kiers explained SPUN to Mr. Burdick:

We’re a really scrappy organization. We’re super lean and mean; we don’t even have an office. We are everywhere and nowhere. That really helps us. In an academic setting, you almost have to know what you’re going to find before you’re funded to find it.

I use the term “punk science.” We’re trying to cross boundaries and disciplines and not accept the state of the world as a given, while celebrating science that is rooted in creativity.

I also like her views on collaboration: “That’s why I like to work across different fields, with economists, biophysicists, artists. It generates this tension that I think drives big ideas. We’re borrowing tools from other disciplines that allow us to see things in fungi that we had never seen before. We’re hacking the system.”

Punk science indeed.  Hacking the system. You can see why she got that MacArthur “genius” award.

Look, I don’t like mushrooms and it would freak me out if I really knew how omnipresent fungi are in the world, but people like Dr. Kiers are helping us all understand how very important, and how very complex, fungi are. So, kudos to Dr. Kiers and her band of fellow scientists at SPUN, and all those Underground Explorers and Advocates. And here’s to punk science wherever it is practiced!

It's Only a Subsidy If You're Poor

Even though most ACA enrollees/would-be enrollees have made their 2026 enrollment decisions assuming the expanded premium subsidies are not going to be renewed, the renewal of those subsidies is not entirely dead. Last week the House narrowly passed an extension, relying on a discharge petition and 17 Republican Congressmen willing to go against their leadership. Meanwhile, in the Senate, Senator Bernie Moreno (R-OH), of all people, is leading an effort to come up with a bill to expand them as well.

Too many of us are Oliver. Credit: GIPHY

Whether it will eventually get passed is uncertain, as is how/when it might be reconciled with the House bill, and the President might just veto whatever extension might manage to emerge. The expanded subsidies aren’t dead yet, they’re just “mostly dead,” as Miracle Max would say.

The seeming indifference to the concerns of over twenty million ACA enrollees is appalling, but in character. This is an Administration and a Republican Congress that doesn’t like SNAP, Medicaid, school lunches, or aid to starving people in Third World countries, among other things. If you’re poor, they think, too bad; get a job, or a better job, and pull yourself up yourself. No handouts.

If they were against federal subsidies generally, out of fiscal prudence or other guiding principles, I could respect it. I wouldn’t agree with it, but it’d at least be intellectually honest. The trouble is, they’re not against subsidies per se; they just don’t like them going to poor people. I.e., the ones who need them most.

What set me off on this was a ProPublica/High Country News investigation into grazing on public lands. If you live in the East you probably don’t think much about either grazing or public lands, but if you live in the West you are probably very familiar with both. Almost 50% of land in Western states is federally owned. It ranges from 85% in Nevada to 4% in North Dakota. Almost half of California is federal land. You might be forgiven if you assume federal lands must be national parks, but they are small relative to land managed by the Bureau of Land Management (BLM), the U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service (FWS), and the U.S. Forest Service (USFS).

According to ProPublica: “The federal government allows livestock grazing across an area of publicly owned land more than twice the size of California, making ranching the largest land use in the West.” Well, you might think, that’s not inherently bad; we might as well use the land for something, maybe even make a little money from it. That’s the problem; the federal government is practically giving it away. Its analysis found that the grazing fees charged amount to a 93% discount relative to the market rate. You read that right: ninety three percent. That’s not a discount, that’s a giveaway.

OK, that’s eye-opening, but if it helps a bunch of ranchers who are struggling to survive, maybe that’s not so bad; ranching goes back to frontier days and has a certain cowboy appeal. Unfortunately, that stereotype isn’t quite true. ProPublica found:

A small number of wealthy individuals and corporations manage most livestock on public lands. Roughly two-thirds of the grazing on BLM acreage is controlled by just 10% of ranchers, our analysis found. And on Forest Service land, the top 10% of permittees control more than 50% of grazing. Among the largest ranchers are billionaires like Stan Kroenke and Rupert Murdoch, as well as mining companies and public utilities.

To be fair, there are a large number of small ranching operators who also take advantage of grazing on federal land; they’re just not the operations who do most of the grazing.

As if the rich ranchers weren’t already benefiting, the Trump Administration wants to increase subsidies and reduce oversight. But of course it does. Instead of being a protector of public lands, BLM has turned into a facilitator of their exploitation.  Current and former BLM employees told ProPublica about the political pressure that was applied whenever they tried to do anything that might be considered “anti-grazing.”

It’s not just ranchers. We like to think of family farmers working their land, and we provide tens of billions in aid to farmers, but, according to the Environmental Working Group:

…the vast majority of farmers do not benefit from federal farm subsidy programs and most of the subsidies go to the largest and most financially secure farm operations. Small commodity farmers qualify for a mere pittance, while producers of meat, f[r]uits, and vegetables are almost completely left out of the subsidy game (i.e. they can sign up for subsidized crop insurance and often receive federal disaster payments).

Meanwhile, the Trump Administration brags about how it “is making major strides in putting America’s public lands to work for the American people,” by which it means if you want to drill for oil or gas, mine for coal, tear down forests, while paying little and not worrying about environmental concerns, you’re in luck. But by “American people” it means “rich American people.”

Similarly, subsidies that go to the U.S. fossil fuel industry are difficult to pin down, but a 2025 analysis by Oil Change International estimated them at $31b annually, double the amount in 2017. And that was before the “Big, Beautiful Bill” added even further to the subsidies.

Don’t even get me started on how corporations and rich individuals manage to evade federal taxes, such as through the carried interest loophole. Not many poor people benefit from that.

Yes, perhaps the expanded ACA credits perhaps were expanded a little too much, and, yes, there may be some fraud in the program. But to throw the baby out with the bathwater by simply allowing them to expire is draconian. The estimated $30b in annual costs for the subsidies is not trivial, but I’d rather spend it ensuring millions of people can get/keep health coverage than giving it to rich ranchers, farmers, or oil companies.

Brick by Brick by (Smart) Brick

I’m an innovation junkie, the further out there the better, but every so often it’s good to be reminded that just because a company has been around for a while, innovation is still possible.

Two examples: LEGO® and Kodak.

Let’s start with LEGO. If you are around any small children – and perhaps not even all that small – you probably have seen them playing with Legos. Legos have been around, in various incarnations, for longer than I’ve been alive, and that’s saying something. Most adults watching kids assemble their Legos probably have two reactions: “gosh, I wish they’d make them even more complicated” (note to the oblivious reader – that was sarcastic), and “well, at least they’re not on their screens.”

So I bet a lot of us have a slightly surprised reaction to Lego’s announcement today to CES 2026: LEGO SMART Play™.

The key innovation is the SMART Brick, which “is packed with technologies that bring play to life including sensors, accelerometers, light sensing and a sound sensor as well as a miniature speaker driven by an onboard synthesiser, and much more, in addition to easy wireless charging.” All that is powered by a custom chip, which is smaller than one of the studs on a LEGO brick.

The LEGO Group states: “Without any setup, SMART Bricks are magically ‘aware’ of each other’s positions and orientations in 3D space, thanks to a novel, high-accuracy, magnetic positioning system. They can also communicate via a self-organising network that adapts to play. Advanced onboard systems let SMART Bricks comprehend and interact with each other, as well as the fans building with them.” “Magic” in this context meaning Bluetooth.

Nerdist calls it “the most exciting innovation in screenless play ever.”  

“For over 90 years, the LEGO Group has sparked imagination and creativity in children around the globe. As the world evolves, so do we— innovating to meet the play needs of each new generation. LEGO SMART Play™ is the next exciting chapter in our LEGO System in Play and something we are super excited about being able to bring to the world at this scale,” said Julia Goldin, Chief Product & Marketing Officer of the LEGO Group.

Tom Donaldson, Senior Vice President & Head of Creative Play Lab at the LEGO Group said “The launch of LEGO SMART Play™ brings creativity, technology, and storytelling together to make building worlds and stories even more engaging, and all without a screen. We truly believe we are setting a new standard for interactive, imaginative experiences and can’t wait to see this innovation in the hands of kids when we launch this year.”

LEGO is partnering with Disney and Lucasfilm for three ‘All-In-One' LEGO Star Wars™ building sets, featuring SMART Bricks, SMART Tags, and Smart Minifigures that “power the system and allow builders’ creations to become interactive, responding to actions with appropriate sounds and behaviours, allowing for a truly responsive play experience.” LEGO being LEGO, of course it’s all compatible with existing LEGO Systems-in-Play.   

The three initial sets are building sets for the Red Wing X-Wing, the Darth Vader TIE Fighter™, and the Throne Room Duel & A-Wing™, and will be available March 1. 

Nerdist’s Rotem Rusak raves:  

But just because a form of play doesn’t involve screens doesn’t mean it can’t evolve or incorporate the cool technologies at our disposal today. LEGO SMART Play isn’t trying to transform LEGO into something it isn’t. Although its technology is awesome, the purpose of it isn’t just to create new tech, but to enhance the traditional play that has always been at the heart of the LEGO brand.

She adds: “This is truly a beautiful way to use technology. The LEGO Group is putting technological advancements to work to bolster something that is already so good, rather than trying to rewrite or erase it, as we’ve seen happen in so many other arenas.”

That’s a beautiful way to do innovation.

Then there’s Kodak. When I saw a headline in Digital Camera World naming Kodak the “comeback king of 2025,” and another review calling the Kodak PIXPRO C1 as the hottest camera of the year, my first reaction wasn’t “how nice for them,” but rather: “wait -- Kodak is still around?”

To those of us of earlier generations, Kodak was the Apple of its day.  Bold, innovative, well-designed, omnipresent. With the advent of digital cameras and then mobile phone cameras, though, it was generally thought to have lost its mojo and, indeed, I can be forgiven for assuming it had curled up into bankruptcy or worse. Don Stapley in DCW explains:  

The comeback king has been revitalizing its fortunes largely by betting big on its ultra-cheap PixPro line of compact cameras – you know, the kind of camera we were all assured was dying out. The company that first made its name with point-and-shoot cameras a century ago is doing so once again.

Chris Gampat’s review in The Phoblographer gushes: “Make no mistake, the Kodak PIXPRO C1 is a camera that feels so much like the early iPhone if it was stuffed into a camera body.” Mr. Gampat further tells us: “Photography doesn’t need to be that serious all the time…The Kodak PIXPRO C1 is a wonderful reminder of that in a time when the world around us is burning.” 

Japanese photo retailer Map Camera listed the Kodak PixPro FZ55 as the best selling camera of the year. Kodak even has a global licensing program,  which, as The Washington Post reports, is particularly popular in South Korea.

Kodak PixPro FZ55. Credit: Kodak

That is not to say that all is sunshine and roses in Rochester. Its second quarter 2025 financial results warned that its various debt obligations “raise substantial doubt about the Company’s ability to continue as a going concern as of the issuance date of the Company’s second quarter financials,” although its 3^rd quarter results belied those concerns.

The point is, with all its history and with all the headlines against it, Kodak is still finding ways to innovate in its space, not by being the flashiest or having the most modern tech, but building on its brand and delivering the experiences customers are looking for.

-----------

Not everything has to be AI. Not everything even has to involve screens. Not everything has to include the latest tech. Here’s to innovations that, as Ms. Rusak says, “work to bolster something that is already so good, rather than trying to rewrite or erase it.”